Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 185.147124 219.317037 259.900730 312.190107 378.555733 461.048344 5.730547e+02
2025-10-05 150.826530 194.315768 252.000370 336.125679 459.234238 638.848651 9.329897e+02
2025-10-12 129.938536 177.659528 246.226260 356.056754 536.073813 836.739804 1.420406e+03
2025-10-19 114.679594 164.150431 239.832463 370.657571 606.662358 1051.176138 2.065422e+03
2025-10-26 102.343106 152.000342 231.961037 379.322073 668.282187 1275.390896 2.895364e+03
2025-11-02 91.742723 140.445186 222.275785 381.520057 717.457514 1497.244087 3.918885e+03
2025-11-09 81.732166 128.162843 208.881164 373.108996 741.462276 1673.881018 5.003517e+03
2025-11-16 73.489332 117.658973 196.765320 364.198436 761.231110 1851.272206 6.320713e+03
2025-11-23 66.519134 108.442691 185.508703 354.453702 775.817098 2023.909571 7.888753e+03
2025-11-30 64.747835 108.303664 191.418243 383.199755 898.995004 2617.605667 1.274791e+04
2025-12-07 60.722369 103.441784 187.171768 387.726038 958.411793 3042.256893 1.791325e+04
2025-12-14 57.695240 100.106280 185.516704 398.106915 1039.994303 3629.887278 2.679262e+04
2025-12-21 53.694069 94.581219 178.792215 395.266825 1082.969673 4115.115150 3.784711e+04
2025-12-28 52.757290 95.072970 185.253616 428.924119 1267.979647 5553.348027 7.712822e+04
2026-01-04 51.344652 94.402656 188.992246 456.376380 1448.939501 7308.712158 1.639694e+05
2026-01-11 49.544972 92.693468 190.030852 476.452756 1615.279946 9346.910688 3.654020e+05
2026-01-18 47.437973 90.079163 188.489796 488.382772 1756.240966 11572.643826 8.567516e+05
2026-01-25 45.076150 86.654072 184.451527 491.412430 1859.720175 13790.605189 2.095182e+06
2026-02-01 42.261911 81.949055 176.558918 479.832581 1884.610760 15281.386030 4.553546e+06
2026-02-08 39.679969 77.548647 168.933347 467.589899 1901.362824 16806.341555 1.127266e+07
2026-02-15 37.286763 73.380255 161.433023 454.231036 1906.266107 18270.643903 3.295891e+07
2026-02-22 37.159661 74.454473 168.040123 493.727991 2256.073788 27246.374122 2.752918e+11
2026-03-01 35.770659 72.415213 165.882818 499.971451 2405.404451 33750.429951 NaN